Monday, May 14th at 7:59PM EDT
No Spinning This As Good News For Obama
In a long election season, it’s never wise to get too high or too low over any one poll. Presidential elections are won at the state level, but statewide polling is fairly sporadic at this stage of the race, so we’re stuck reading national polls a lot. But the latest poll is bad news for President Obama.
We all know the major issues by now to look for with individual polls: some polls are adults, and are totally useless, because only registered voters can vote. Polls of likely voters, in turn, are vastly more accurate and less Democratic-biased than polls of registered voters, many of whom also don’t show up to vote. Most polls are also reported after weighting to achieve some guesstimate of the partisan breakdown of the general electorate among Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Even polls that don’t feature egregious hackery are an inexact science, because they rest on the pollster’s current assumptions about the D/R/I split and the ‘screen’ they use to decide who is a likely voter. If the shape of the electorate is not as projected, the poll will be wrong.
May 14, 2012 | Categories: 2012 Election, Agency Regulation, America's Disarmament, America's Freedoms, American Legacy People, Class Warfare, Classified Intelligence, Cloward and Piven Strategy, Congress, Congress: Inquiries & Committees, Constitution, Constitutional Responsibilities, Constitutional Rights, Corruption in Government, Economic Security, Economic Terrorism, Education, Election 2012, Elections Politics, Electorate, Employer Uncertainty, Energy and Oil, Excessive Government Spending, Fiscal Responsibility, Freedom Justice and Liberty, Fuel Prices, Government, Government Appointments, Government Regulations, Individual Rights and Freedoms, Jobs, Learn from History, Liberals Big Spending and Taxes, Manufactured Crisis, Media Corruption, Most Americans Reject Socialism, National Debt, National Security, New Media News, Nuclear Security, Political Contests, Politically Intentioned Crisis, Politics, Privacy for Citizens, Propaganda, Public Sector (Government), Redistribution of Wealth, Rejecting Political Correctess, Religion, Religious Freedoms, Rights of States, Smaller Government, Stock Market, Banks & Financial Institutions, Tea Party Conservatives, TEA Taxed Enough Already, Terrorism, The Economy, Treason, Unemployment, Unfunded Union Pensions, UNIONS ACORN and SEIU, Wall Street - Main Street | Tags: Among Registered Voters, Barack Obama, CBS/NYT, democrats republicans, inexact science, Mitt Romney, national polls, politics, Romney 46 - Obama 43, voter poll | Leave A Comment »